FLEET COMMAND · PATH TO A$110K A YEAR

Levers, sign-up rates, costs and the rule check

Streetfront clients by month, per acquisition path (lever plan, 3% monthly churn)

Where year-1 sign-ups come from

What has to be true: previews really lift conversion to about 1 in 90; 100 cold emails a month stay deliverable and Spam-Act clean; ads find paying clients at A$600-750 each; churn stays near 3% a month (no Streetfront data yet; MicroConf reports 5.5-10.6% for indie SaaS). Simulated range: 'low/median/high' are the 10th/50th/90th percentiles of 3,000 runs. Each run varies every lever, churn (2-5%), and has a 35% chance that the whole offer converts at only about 0.3x the plan (the report's bear). These numbers are assumptions, not data.

Honest summary. Social is close to free in Fonty's time (Kaito and the bots post through Postiz). Direct sign-ups are small: about 1.1 in year 1 and 1.4 in year 2 (assumption), because new brand pages reach only a few percent of a small follower base. Its bigger effect is as a trust layer under every other channel (below): about 5.6 clients in year 1 and 8.1 in year 2 in total at a +25% lift. On top of that sits a rare semi-viral spike. A semi-viral moment bringing 10+ customers at once (Fonty's view) is possible, but nothing I found shows how often that happens for a small B2B local web service; the evidence below is all general-audience. The model treats virality as a 2% chance per month (assumption anchored to quso.ai's 1-in-358 TikTok odds of 100K views with 8 reels a month, which is probably generous for a B2B brand on Facebook/Instagram/X).

Social proof / trust multiplier (added 9:10 am)

Fonty's point: social builds trust ("they're real, they do all this, wow"). It is where the automation is explained with example videos, and every outreach email, preview, ad landing page and referral link points to Streetfront's Instagram, X and Facebook. So the model now raises the conversion of cold email + previews, ads and referrals by a trust lift that ramps from 0 in month 1 to full at month 6, as the profiles fill up with posts. Partners and SEO are not lifted, to stay conservative. Direct sign-ups and viral spikes are still counted separately.

What the evidence says (real surveys; none measures a conversion lift for a B2B/SMB web service): most buyers check a small business online before buying, and stale or missing profiles hurt credibility (GoDaddy: 80% research first, 74% judge a 30-day silence). But for B2B buyers, social is a secondary check, not a decider (GWI: 14% use it to decide; KoMarketing: 18% say social activity clearly establishes credibility, 39% sometimes). Signs.com also warns that 48% trust content less if it looks AI-generated, which matters because the posts are bot-made.

Chosen lift: +25% (assumption), in the NORMAL scenario. Rough logic: maybe 40-60% of prospects click through to the profiles (most research before buying, and B2B buyers use social as a check), and active profiles with real example videos persuade perhaps 40-50% more of those who check than an empty or missing presence would. That gives about +16-30%; +25% is near the top of that band. If the posts look generic or AI-made, BEAR's +10% is more realistic. +40% (BULL) would need real client videos and testimonials, which Gartner and Signs.com both rank as the strongest proof.

New clients per month attributable to social (+25% lift: direct sign-ups + trust lift, no viral spike)

Evidence on social proof and trust

• GWI Work research (17,000 knowledge workers): over a third of decision-makers use social to discover products, but only 14% use it to decide what to buy; supplier websites (43%) and search (41%) matter more
• KoMarketing/BuyerZone B2B web usability report via MarTech, 2015 (262 B2B buyers): does social activity establish credibility? 18% yes, 39% sometimes, 35% no; 46% say social is not a factor in choosing a vendor
• Gartner, June 2023 (771 B2B buyers): YouTube was the top social channel influencing a recent B2B purchase, then Facebook and Instagram; buyers value third-party proof (references, reviews) 1.4x more than supplier content
• GoDaddy, 2024 (1,000 US Gen Z/Millennials): 80% research a small business online before the first purchase, checking reviews, website and social accounts; 74% say no social or blog update in 30 days affects its integrity; about 95% expect a small business on some social platform
• Signs.com (1,000 US consumers): 59% have bought from a small business because of its social content; demos/tutorials influence 43%; but 48% trust a small business less if its content looks AI-generated
• Trustpilot (1,627 shoppers incl. 137 Australians): being active on social media is neutral for trust for most people (54%); missing reviews (81%) and an outdated website (77%) cut trust
• Clutch, Aug 2025 (483 consumers): 56% worry about scams when buying through social; peer recommendations or reviews (31%) help overcome it

Follower ramp (thousands)

Recommended path P2: Streetfront clients at month 12

A$110k month and chance by m24 / m36, with and without social

Month = lever plan with one spike placed in month 9 (the 'no spike' column has none). Percentages = simulation where spikes happen at random (2%/month), alongside the other uncertainties. The 'now' columns include the 26 Oct launch, approved previews from month 2 and the approved A$400/mo Google test from month 1 with its A$1,200 hard stop.

Evidence (general audiences; none specific to B2B local web services)

• Socialinsider 2025: Facebook pages reach about 1.65% of followers per post; Instagram about 3.5%
• Socialinsider 2025: average Facebook engagement 0.15%; pages with 1-5K followers get about 5-8 likes a post
• quso.ai (508K posts, 1,900+ creators): about 1 in 35 TikTok posts reach 10K views and 1 in 358 reach 100K
• Posteriks (19,624 Facebook posts): 7.5% beat their own page baseline 5x and 3.4% beat it 10x. That is relative to a tiny baseline for a new page
• Sangiorgio et al., Scientific Reports 2025 (1,000+ news outlets on Facebook/YouTube): most viral events do not significantly raise engagement and rarely lead to sustained growth
• Postiz pricing (checked 18 Oct 2026): Standard US$29/mo for 5 channels, Team US$39/mo for 10 (US$23 / US$31 a month billed yearly)

Report figures are month-24 run rates of each idea from its own start, and their volumes are assumptions. Honest bottom line: the Kit is a cheap top-up (base ≈ A$16k), the calm channel is roughly zero for now, and only a second large idea (#9 fits the no-calls rule best) can close a big gap. That costs focus.

Today's way: about 4 + 0.33 h/wk per client, so the bull case's 90 clients means about 34 h/wk. Automated target: about 3 + 0.12 h/wk per client (assumption). Both formulas are calibrated to the report's 14 h/wk at 30 clients.

Recommended: P2, P1 + Locked Character Kit + brand social, with a month-3 gate to add the exam platform (P3). It keeps one main business, adds a product that is already built, stays inside the no-calls rule, and keeps Fonty near 9.5 h/wk if the automation list is done. P3 has the highest simulated chance (56% by m24) but the most hours and the most focus risk, so earn it with the gate.

1. Spend yeses from Fonty (one email): go-live of the approved Google test (A$400/mo cap, hard stop at A$1,200 with no paying client, earliest 25-26 Oct) and Postiz Team at US$39/mo (≈A$59) for 6 channels. Postiz spending needs his yes, and so does the Streetfront X account, because MASTER plans IG + FB only.
2. Yes on the rest of the lever pack: founder pricing for the first 10 (no review condition), referral month-free, partner commission A$100. Kaito then starts the posting calendar (before/after makeovers from consented or clearly labelled demo sites, tradie tips, reels; replies routed to email).
3. Ship the Locked Character Kit listing (Gumroad/Etsy) and set the month-3 gate (late Jan 2027) for the exam platform (#9): start it only if Streetfront has ≥4 paying clients and Fonty is at ≤10 h/wk.

• Every conversion, cost per client, churn and attach rate here is an assumption. Streetfront has no paying clients yet. Replace them with real numbers at month 3 and month 6.
• The probabilities come from a simulation of these same assumptions. They show how sensitive the plan is, not how likely the future is.
• A$110k is a run rate (the month's net × 12), not a full year banked. The first full A$110k year comes about 6-12 months later.
• Hours exclude building new products and assume the automation list works. Today's formula is roughly 2-3x higher.
• Previews and the Google ad test are approved; the ad go-live, Postiz, the Streetfront X account, referral month-free, a higher partner commission and founder pricing still need Fonty's yes. Founder pricing in exchange for reviews is not allowed and has been reworded.
• Trust lift: no study measures how much active social profiles raise conversion for a B2B/SMB web service. +10/+25/+40% are assumptions built on general consumer and B2B surveys, and bot-made posts risk the 48% who distrust AI-looking content. Measure it: send half of the emails with the social links and half without, then compare reply-to-paid rates by month 4.
• Social virality: no evidence was found on how often a small B2B local web service goes semi-viral, or how many clients a spike brings. The 2%/month chance and the 3/10/20 spike sizes are assumptions. Research on viral posts (Sangiorgio et al. 2025) finds spikes rarely last.
• No source was checked for Streetfront's own ad cost per client, preview lift, partner yield or SEO timing. The exam platform's season dates need checking before committing.